Why is Chiefs star Travis Kelce always open? Opposing NFL coaches try to explain

June 10, 2024

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There is only one question that needs to be asked as we get ready for the Super Bowl on Sunday.

How is Travis Kelce, with all defenses preparing for him, always open?

Yeah, yeah … the Chiefs tight end is too fast for linebackers and too big for defensive backs. But surely, defenses can double-team, chip him at the line of scrimmage or bracket coverage on top of him …

So, why is he seemingly running free downfield every week? Kelce, at 33, set career highs with 110 receptions and 12 touchdowns, and his 1,338 yards were the second-best of his career. He either recorded a first down or touchdown on 13 percent of his routes, also a career-best.

Kelce himself has a simple answer.

“Andy Reid, baby. Big Red,” Kelce said Thursday at his Super Bowl media availability. “He can dial stuff up at the right time, create some things at the right time, and then on top of that everybody’s doing their jobs. It’s not just a me-go-out-there-and-get-open-type play. I’m sure you guys like to think that, but there’s a lot of madness to it, and there’s a lot of guys doing their jobs for the big picture. I’m fortunate that I’m playing here, for sure.”

To try to get a further explanation, we turned to the film and to the analytics and spoke to five NFL defensive coordinators, most of whom have spent portions of their career facing Kelce twice a year in the AFC West. They were granted anonymity in order to freely share information.

“He is extremely athletic and he uses your momentum against you,” said one coach who has served as a head coach and coordinator in the league. “It’s something that the Chiefs have passed on from the Tony Gonzalez days. If you have inside leverage, he breaks the route outside, and if you have outside leverage, he breaks the route inside. And Kelce and (Patrick) Mahomes and have so much continuity and chemistry between them that they know what to adjust to at the same time.”

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In the AFC Championship Game win over the Bengals, Kelce was running to the right corner of the end zone before turning to the middle of the end zone to catch a 14-yard touchdown pass from Mahomes.

AFC Championship Game vs. Bengals, 4:23 remaining in the second quarter, fourth-and-1

On this fourth-and-1, Kelce lined up in a stack alignment with another receiver outside of it, one of the tactics the Chiefs use frequently to make it tougher to double-team him. The Bengals’ secondary was still communicating to adjust to Kelce in the formation when they were interrupted by the ball being snapped. The play call was a rollout toward Kelce, who ran a corner route into the end zone.

The alignment might have caused the secondary to bust its double-team. Kelce was single-covered by safety Jessie Bates. Cornerback Eli Apple only dropped deep late because his initial assignment didn’t release into a route. Bates played Kelce with heavy outside leverage and had the corner route covered. With the route capped, most quarterbacks might move to their next read, but Mahomes kept his vision on Kelce.

Kelce knew he couldn’t win outside, so he started pivoting inside. Mahomes was on the same page and was already in his throwing motion as Kelce was pivoting.

The throw was a back shoulder off a corner route, a rare play that Mahomes and Kelce complete routinely.

Mahomes. Kelce. Every time.

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“It looks like they are freelancing, but they are not,” one AFC coordinator said.

Kelce is a 6-foot-5, 256-pound former basketball player who uses his big body to separate from defenders at the top of his routes and blocks them out when the ball is approaching like he is positioning for a rebound. At that point, it’s all over, as Kelce can jump and has good hands.

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Surely, though, he could not keep that up this season after the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins. The speedster stretched the field, taking a lot of defensive attention with him and opening up the middle of the field for Kelce to operate. Kelce — and Mahomes, for that matter — would not be as prolific without Hill. Or at least that was the popular refrain around the league last offseason.

“But they just run the offense through Kelce now,” another AFC coordinator said. “He and Mahomes are using the players around him as chess pieces now.”

That’s where Reid comes in. The Chiefs coach has been drawing guys open since even before he was coaching Sunday’s opponent, the Eagles, in the Super Bowl 18 years ago. Kelce had a career-high 152 targets without Hill this season and his lowest average depth of target (7.13 yards downfield) since Mahomes became the starter.

“They just started playing a different way this season,” the coordinator and former head coach said. “They would kill you with explosive plays in the past, but now they spread guys around. You can’t play two deep anymore. They still get explosive plays, but they go about it a different way. They attack you from inside out and Mahomes can pick you apart. And Kelce sees the game as a quarterback too. He was one in high school.”

The numbers say that Kelce is better against zone coverage than man-to-man. He ranks eighth out of 185 qualified players in yards/route vs. zone (2.45), whereas he is only 26th in yards/route vs. man (2.18).

“He changes his routes as he is reading defenses running down the field,” one of the AFC coordinators said. “He is fluid in his cuts, and his suddenness making decisions is more effective getting separation than if he was really fast. He is fast enough … and only he knows where he is going. And Mahomes.”

Week 1 vs. Cardinals, 22 seconds left in the second quarter, second-and-10

Here, Kelce was isolated to the weakside after running back Jerick McKinnon flare motioned to the three-receiver side. Kelce ran a crossing route to an already crowded strongside.

In this game against the Cardinals, the defense blitzed and dropped into a three-deep, three-underneath zone. Initially, Kelce settled into the first window but Mahomes didn’t see him, so he kept working to open space.

Mahomes had to step up because of the pressure, and before Kelce uncovered in the second window, Mahomes was already in his throwing motion.

Mahomes had to throw across his body but completed a strike to Kelce for an 18-yard gain.

Kelce is particularly good at finding the soft spot in a zone defense by running crossing routes across the middle of the field. Including the playoffs, he has 21 catches (with 19.5 yards per catch) on crossing routes this season, per Pro Football Focus and TruMedia. Six went for touchdowns and another 12 moved the chains.

“So, the obvious answer is man coverage and hit him at the line of scrimmage, right?” one NFC coordinator said. “Put another guy on top of him and hope that Mahomes looks to someone else. But he is still going to get his catches. And if you put a linebacker on him, he might miss him and get beat off the line.

“Plus, they move him around a lot.”

Kelce ranked first among tight ends in yards/route from the slot (2.39) … and first at the position in yards/route when lined up out wide (2.46). No tight end ran more routes from out wide than Kelce (183), and seven of his 12 TDs came from out wide.

Week 5 vs. Raiders, 9:29 remaining in the third quarter, third-and-4

On this third down against the Raiders, Kelce lined up on the right wing initially but motioned across the formation toward the two-receiver stack to the left. Raiders safety Tre’von Moehrig followed him across the formation, indicating that the Raiders were in man coverage.

The Raiders had a bracket called on Kelce, with Moehrig playing with outside leverage and safety Duron Harmon playing inside. Kelce ran to the flat initially and Moehrig ran into a receiver following Kelce outside, but Kelce was actually running a pivot route and broke inside.

Even though the Raiders were in man coverage, Kelce didn’t break back inside with speed. He slowed down, which gave Mahomes space to throw the ball before Harmon could close on him. Harmon tried to go for the ball but it zipped past him. Kelce caught it and spun away from him to get into the end zone.

Mahomes to Kelce TD part 2 👀

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“He is a matchup nightmare, and not just because he is too wiggly for linebackers, but sometimes he hits them too and gets leverage,” the NFC coordinator said. “He is a tough guy who is a good blocker when he has to be and who knows how to fight for space when he has to.

“You asked why he is so tough to cover. He is a great athlete who studies defenses and has every skill and trick in the book.”

Reid also just moves Kelce — literally, as the tight end is in pre-snap motion more than any other player in the NFL. Since 2020, he leads the NFL in snaps, receptions and receiving yards after going in motion or shifting, according to the league’s Next Gen Stats.

If a defensive end or linebacker does get a bump on Kelce, it’s still not a win as Kelce needs less than a yard of outside or inside leverage to be on his way. The Chiefs also line Kelce up in two receiver stacks with short motion, and Kelce can rub off the crowded, tight coverage like a cutter to the basket in a basketball pick-and-roll play.

“You have to mix it up against him or he is going to go 10 for 160 against you,” said one veteran NFL defensive coordinator said. “People love to say make somebody else beat you, and really you’re hoping that he beats you less.”

And that’s the biggest problem with man-to-man coverage. If Mahomes gets outside the pocket and extends the play, Kelce can catch the ball and run a long way if/when he has beaten his defender. Since 2018, on plays that take three or more seconds to throw the ball, Kelce ranks fourth in the NFL in receiving yards (2,088), first in yards after catch (723) and second in first down/TD receptions (100).

Week 5 vs. Raiders, 3:52 remaining in the third quarter, second-and-9

Here, the Raiders bracketed Kelce with Moehrig and Harmon, and they also had inside linebacker Denzel Perryman ready to collide with him if he went inside.

As Kelce crossed the middle, Perryman launched at Kelce to knock him off his route. Kelce lost his balance but regained it and kept running. Harmon had inside leverage so he sprinted to get in front of Kelce.

Mahomes was pressured and broke the pocket to the right. As he broke the pocket, Kelce somehow felt space inside and spun back toward a number of Raiders defenders.

Kelce’s premonition was correct. Moehrig, Harmon and Perryman overpursued outside and couldn’t react to Kelce’s adjustment and the throw. After a couple of stiff arms, Kelce stumbled into the end zone. Kelce’s ability to sense where space is after the catch is one of his underrated abilities.

KELCE HAT TRICK FOR THE LEAD 🎩

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Having extra defensive backs on the field does seem to help. Among 83 qualified players, Kelce ranks 15th in yards/route (2.05) when defenses have five DBs out there, as opposed to sixth (3.45 yards/route) when four defensive backs or less are on the field. In the regular season, Kelce is tied for third in the NFL with 16 first-down or touchdown receptions against base defenses.

“You have to treat him like a wide receiver and play top-down coverage and always have help,” the NFC coordinator said. “And then you hope the quarterback has to hurry up, otherwise Kelce is too smart and too slippery. If you try and cover him with a safety, in most cases it’s just a matter of time before he beats him for a really big play.”

To make it worse for defenses, Kelce, like all future Hall of Famers, has a knack for coming up big in clutch situations. Take the 30-29 win over the Raiders last October. The Raiders did a good job of chipping at Kelce at the line of scrimmage and held him to seven catches for 25 yards. Unfortunately for them, four of them were touchdown grabs.

“He has a unique way of killing you in critical, critical times,” the veteran coordinator said. “They know what your counter is going to be to their counter, and he just makes plays. Even if he is double-teamed, Mahomes is going to find him, and Kelce is going to make the catch.

“Sometimes it doesn’t matter what coverage you play against them, and that’s hard to say.”

Kelce was targeted on 25 percent of his third- and fourth-down routes during the regular season, a career-high rate. And he ranked fourth among all players in first-down or touchdown receptions on third and fourth down, with 24.

”He is a great competitor, and that’s another reason he will go to the Hall of Fame one day,” one of the AFC coordinators said. “If you have a big enough cornerback with great cover skills, you may have to put him on Kelce. And that’s the biggest compliment you could ever give a tight end. But those kinds of cornerbacks are rare and even then, Kelce has the size advantage and you are hurting yourself in terms of covering their best wide receiver.”

“But it’s pick your poison … and you would love for Kelce not to be the poison.”

The Eagles had some success against the Chiefs the last time they played, in 2021. They held Kelce to four catches for 23 yards, but part of that is because Mahomes was having too much fun throwing the ball to Hill, who had 11 catches for 186 yards and three touchdowns in the 42-30 win.

Overall this season, the Eagles rank sixth in pass defense DVOA against tight ends. Across 81 catches, they allowed 801 yards to tight ends, which ranked in the middle of the pack. But they only surrendered three touchdowns to the position, which was the fifth-fewest in the league.

In three games against the Bills and Bengals — two teams that rank ahead of the Eagles in pass defense DVOA against tight ends — Kelce averaged 6.33 receptions for 80.7 yards.

The hope Sunday for the Eagles defense is that its extraordinary pressure up front cuts Mahomes’ time to throw short — as well as Kelce’s ability to roam over the middle of the field.

As far as plans go to stop Kelce, it might be the best one going.

“Everybody has tried different things and there is a reason that the Chiefs are so efficient,” the coordinator and former head coach said. “They have two guys who are among the best to ever play their position, and they think and see the field alike.”

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One of the AFC coordinators said he will enjoy watching Kelce play Sunday.

“We all hate going against him, but he plays the game with so much joy,” he said. “He has a lot of confidence that nobody can stop him … or Mahomes … and so far, he’s been right.”

(Top photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images; screenshots via NFL+)

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